Marketers use online advertising platforms to compare user responses to different ad content. But platforms’ experimentation tools deliver different ads to distinct and undetectably optimized mixes of users that vary across ads, even during the test. Because exposure to ads in the test is non-random, the estimated comparisons confound the effect of the ad content with the effect of algorithmic targeting. This means experimenters may not be learning what they think they are learning from ad A-B tests. The authors document these “divergent delivery” patterns during an online experiment for the first time. They explain how algorithmic targeting, user heterogeneity, and data aggregation conspire to confound the magnitude, and even the sign, of ad A-B test results. Analytically, the paper extends the potential outcomes model of causal inference to treat random assignment of ads and user exposure to ads as separate experimental design elements. Managerially, the authors explain why platforms lack incentives to allow experimenters to untangle the effects of ad content from proprietary algorithmic selection of users when running A-B tests. Given that experimenters have diverse reasons for comparing user responses to ads, the authors offer tailored prescriptive guidance to experimenters based on their specific goals.

Marketers use online advertising platforms to compare user responses to different ad content. But platforms’ experimentation tools deliver different ads to distinct and undetectably optimized mixes of users that vary across ads, even during the test. Because exposure to ads in the test is non-random, the estimated comparisons confound the effect of the ad content with the effect of algorithmic targeting. This means experimenters may not be learning what they think they are learning from ad A-B tests. The authors document these “divergent delivery” patterns during an online experiment for the first time. They explain how algorithmic targeting, user heterogeneity, and data aggregation conspire to confound the magnitude, and even the sign, of ad A-B test results. Analytically, the paper extends the potential outcomes model of causal inference to treat random assignment of ads and user exposure to ads as separate experimental design elements. Managerially, the authors explain why platforms lack incentives to allow experimenters to untangle the effects of ad content from proprietary algorithmic selection of users when running A-B tests. Given that experimenters have diverse reasons for comparing user responses to ads, the authors offer tailored prescriptive guidance to experimenters based on their specific goals.

Digital advertising platforms have emerged as a widely utilized data source in consumer research; yet, the interpretation of such data remains a source of confusion for many researchers. This article aims to address this issue by offering a comprehensive and accessible review of four prominent data collection methods proposed in the marketing literature: informal studies, multiple-ad studies without holdout, single-ad studies with holdout, and multiple-ad studies with holdout. By outlining the strengths and limitations of each method, we aim to enhance understanding regarding the inferences that can and cannot be drawn from the collected data. Furthermore, we present seven recommendations to effectively leverage these tools for programmatic consumer research. These recommendations provide guidance on how to use these tools to obtain causal and non-causal evidence for the effects of marketing interventions, and the associated psychological processes, in a digital environment regulated by targeting algorithms. We also give recommendations for how to describe the testing tools and the data they generate and urge platforms to be more transparent on how these tools work.

Marketers use online advertising platforms to compare user responses to different ad content. But platforms’ experimentation tools deliver different ads to distinct and undetectably optimized mixes of users that vary across ads, even during the test. Because exposure to ads in the test is non-random, the estimated comparisons confound the effect of the ad content with the effect of algorithmic targeting. This means experimenters may not be learning what they think they are learning from ad A-B tests. The authors document these “divergent delivery” patterns during an online experiment for the first time. They explain how algorithmic targeting, user heterogeneity, and data aggregation conspire to confound the magnitude, and even the sign, of ad A-B test results. Analytically, the paper extends the potential outcomes model of causal inference to treat random assignment of ads and user exposure to ads as separate experimental design elements. Managerially, the authors explain why platforms lack incentives to allow experimenters to untangle the effects of ad content from proprietary algorithmic selection of users when running A-B tests. Given that experimenters have diverse reasons for comparing user responses to ads, the authors offer tailored prescriptive guidance to experimenters based on their specific goals.